US Economic Outlook - First Quarter 2020

That this time is different is without a doubt. The question is, how different? While the depth of the contraction may have a parallel with the Great Depression, the speed of the collapse of employment is unrivaled in US history. Thus, the comparison to past economic cycles is fraught with imperfect analogs. The center of the debate is the recovery phase: a sharp rebound that matches the decline? A U-shaped recovery that endures a few quarters before returning to trend? Or the dreaded L-shaped
recovery that echoes the Great Depression? Our argument is a bit of each. Some sectors/regions will rebound sharply, some
will endure a prolonged contraction, while others will face enduring impairment.