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Confidence Meets Constraints
Global Portfolio Strategy Fourth Quarter 2025

Markets are not withdrawing confidence. They are redefining its cost.
Global equity markets confront elevated US and technology valuations amid heightened political volatility, narrowing the margin for error.

📊 CPI (Dec ’25) – Inflation Isn’t Breaking

Consumer Price Index: +2.7% Y/Y

🏠 Housing remains the core problem: costs are still rising faster than CPI and are unlikely to normalize for another ~6 months.
📈 Most major components continue to grow faster than their long-term averages, keeping underlying inflation pressures intact.
⛽ Transportation offered some relief as declining oil prices slowed inflation.
💼 Services inflation may finally begin to moderate as employment growth continues to ease — a theme reinforced by the recent payroll report showing narrow, slowing job gains.
⚠️ Caution: Pending healthcare subsidy cuts are likely to accelerate medical costs, offsetting some of that services relief.

Takeaway: Inflation is becoming more structural than cyclical. Housing and healthcare remain upside risks, while a cooling labor market offers only limited relief.

#CPI #Inflation #Housing #Healthcare #JobsReport #Economy #Macro #Markets #DataDriven

📊 CPI (Dec ’25) – Inflation Isn’t Breaking

Consumer Price Index: +2.7% Y/Y

🏠 Housing remains the core problem: costs are still rising faster than CPI and are unlikely to normalize for another ~6 months.
📈 Most major components continue to grow faster than their long-term averages, keeping underlying inflation pressures intact.
⛽ Transportation offered some relief as declining oil prices slowed inflation.
💼 Services inflation may finally begin to moderate as employment growth continues to ease — a theme reinforced by the recent payroll report showing narrow, slowing job gains.
⚠️ Caution: Pending healthcare subsidy cuts are likely to accelerate medical costs, offsetting some of that services relief.

Takeaway: Inflation is becoming more structural than cyclical. Housing and healthcare remain upside risks, while a cooling labor market offers only limited relief.

#CPI #Inflation #Housing #Healthcare #JobsReport #Economy #Macro #Markets #DataDriven

👥 Non-Farm Payrolls (Dec ’25) – A Bounce Without Momentum

📊 +50k jobs in December, a rebound, but the trend remains weak.

⏸️ Employment growth has been minimal over the past several months, with gains struggling to build any sustained momentum.
🏥 Healthcare continues to carry job creation: without it, net employment growth over the past year would be essentially zero.
💵 Wage growth remains above inflation, but is now slowing below the 12-month average.

Takeaway: Headline job gains mask a labor market that is narrow and fragile. When growth depends on a single sector, resilience is thinner than it appears.

#JobsReport #NonFarmPayrolls #LaborMarket #Employment #Economy #Macro #Markets #DataDriven

👥 Non-Farm Payrolls (Dec ’25) – A Bounce Without Momentum

📊 +50k jobs in December, a rebound, but the trend remains weak.

⏸️ Employment growth has been minimal over the past several months, with gains struggling to build any sustained momentum.
🏥 Healthcare continues to carry job creation: without it, net employment growth over the past year would be essentially zero.
💵 Wage growth remains above inflation, but is now slowing below the 12-month average.

Takeaway: Headline job gains mask a labor market that is narrow and fragile. When growth depends on a single sector, resilience is thinner than it appears.

#JobsReport #NonFarmPayrolls #LaborMarket #Employment #Economy #Macro #Markets #DataDriven

📊 CPI (Nov ’25) – Inflation Isn’t Slowing

Consumer Price Index: +2.6% Y/Y

🔍 What stands out:
🏠 Housing remains above CPI and will take ~6 months to normalize.
💼 Services continue to run hot — still 25% above their 15-year average.
📈 Core prices remain above their 30-year average and above the prior 15-year peak.
🛒 Price increases are broad-based, signaling inflation pressures persist.

Connecting the dots:
This week’s employment report showed healthcare as the only sector driving job growth. Beginning in January, cuts to healthcare insurance subsidies are set to raise medical costs, pressuring both service inflation and the only labor market segment still expanding.

Takeaway: Inflation and employment are now tightly linked through healthcare. Rising medical costs risk keeping services inflation elevated while weakening the sector propping up job growth.

#CPI #Inflation #JobsReport #Healthcare #Economy #Macro #Employment #Markets #DataDriven

📊 CPI (Nov ’25) – Inflation Isn’t Slowing

Consumer Price Index: +2.6% Y/Y

🔍 What stands out:
🏠 Housing remains above CPI and will take ~6 months to normalize.
💼 Services continue to run hot — still 25% above their 15-year average.
📈 Core prices remain above their 30-year average and above the prior 15-year peak.
🛒 Price increases are broad-based, signaling inflation pressures persist.

Connecting the dots:
This week’s employment report showed healthcare as the only sector driving job growth. Beginning in January, cuts to healthcare insurance subsidies are set to raise medical costs, pressuring both service inflation and the only labor market segment still expanding.

Takeaway: Inflation and employment are now tightly linked through healthcare. Rising medical costs risk keeping services inflation elevated while weakening the sector propping up job growth.

#CPI #Inflation #JobsReport #Healthcare #Economy #Macro #Employment #Markets #DataDriven

👥 Non-Farm Payrolls (Nov ’25) – Growth on Borrowed Time

📊 +64k jobs in November — a rebound, but the trend remains fragile.

⏸️ Employment growth has been limited since June, with little momentum beneath the headline.
🏥 Healthcare remains the sole source of meaningful job gains — without it, net employment growth over the past year would be minimal.
⚠️ Context matters: Scheduled cuts to healthcare subsidies in January threaten the only sector still adding jobs.
💵 Wages are holding above inflation, but continue to run below the 12-month average, signaling a cooling labor market.

Takeaway: When job growth depends on a single, policy-supported sector, the labor market’s resilience may be more fragile than it appears.

#JobsReport #NonFarmPayrolls #LaborMarket #Healthcare #Economy #Macro #Employment #Markets

👥 Non-Farm Payrolls (Nov ’25) – Growth on Borrowed Time

📊 +64k jobs in November — a rebound, but the trend remains fragile.

⏸️ Employment growth has been limited since June, with little momentum beneath the headline.
🏥 Healthcare remains the sole source of meaningful job gains — without it, net employment growth over the past year would be minimal.
⚠️ Context matters: Scheduled cuts to healthcare subsidies in January threaten the only sector still adding jobs.
💵 Wages are holding above inflation, but continue to run below the 12-month average, signaling a cooling labor market.

Takeaway: When job growth depends on a single, policy-supported sector, the labor market’s resilience may be more fragile than it appears.

#JobsReport #NonFarmPayrolls #LaborMarket #Healthcare #Economy #Macro #Employment #Markets

📊 CPI (Sep ‘25) – Inflation Settles, but Services Stay Sticky

🧾 Headline: Inflation held steady at ~3% Y/Y — but beneath the surface, prices are still shifting.

🏠 Housing (+3.9%) and Medical Care (+3.3%) continue to drive inflation.
🛍️ Other Goods & Services (+4.1%) outpaced all major categories.
📡 Communication (-1.7%) was the only major decline.

📈 Contribution Breakdown:

Housing now contributes 1.8% of total inflation — over half of the 3% headline.

Food, Transport, and Medical follow as steady drivers.

Long-term trends show persistent shelter and service inflation even as goods stabilize.

Takeaway: Inflation isn’t accelerating, but it isn’t easing meaningfully either. Services and housing remain the core story — keeping the Fed cautious even after last week’s rate cut.

#CPI #Inflation #Economy #Markets #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #Macro #EconomicUpdate #DataDriven

📊 CPI (Sep ‘25) – Inflation Settles, but Services Stay Sticky

🧾 Headline: Inflation held steady at ~3% Y/Y — but beneath the surface, prices are still shifting.

🏠 Housing (+3.9%) and Medical Care (+3.3%) continue to drive inflation.
🛍️ Other Goods & Services (+4.1%) outpaced all major categories.
📡 Communication (-1.7%) was the only major decline.

📈 Contribution Breakdown:

Housing now contributes 1.8% of total inflation — over half of the 3% headline.

Food, Transport, and Medical follow as steady drivers.

Long-term trends show persistent shelter and service inflation even as goods stabilize.

Takeaway: Inflation isn’t accelerating, but it isn’t easing meaningfully either. Services and housing remain the core story — keeping the Fed cautious even after last week’s rate cut.

#CPI #Inflation #Economy #Markets #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #Macro #EconomicUpdate #DataDriven

Global Portfolio Strategy | Q3 2025
The Price of Confidence

Confidence is the most expensive currency in markets. 💡
After two years of extraordinary gains, liquidity and belief still drive valuations — even as real yields rise and fiscal discipline fades.

📊 In The Price of Confidence, we explore how:

• Real yields above 2% redefine risk-free returns.
• Equity leadership narrows and scale replaces diversification.
• Private credit expands quietly beyond the public markets.
• Gold outpaces copper as investors trade growth for safety.
• The dollar stays strong — not from prudence, but from a lack of alternatives.

Across every market, confidence has become collateral — tradable, renewable, and dangerously cyclical.

At CRM, we believe discipline restores confidence.

The next phase of returns won’t reward stimulus or sentiment, but precision: the art of calibrating conviction.

🔗 Read CRM Global Portfolio Strategy Q3 2025 – The Price of Confidence
bit.ly/crm_markets

#GlobalMarkets #MacroStrategy #AssetAllocation #RiskManagement #ThePriceOfConfidence #CapitalRiskManagement #InvestmentDiscipline #ConfidenceAndCapital

Global Portfolio Strategy | Q3 2025
The Price of Confidence

Confidence is the most expensive currency in markets. 💡
After two years of extraordinary gains, liquidity and belief still drive valuations — even as real yields rise and fiscal discipline fades.

📊 In The Price of Confidence, we explore how:

• Real yields above 2% redefine risk-free returns.
• Equity leadership narrows and scale replaces diversification.
• Private credit expands quietly beyond the public markets.
• Gold outpaces copper as investors trade growth for safety.
• The dollar stays strong — not from prudence, but from a lack of alternatives.

Across every market, confidence has become collateral — tradable, renewable, and dangerously cyclical.

At CRM, we believe discipline restores confidence.

The next phase of returns won’t reward stimulus or sentiment, but precision: the art of calibrating conviction.

🔗 Read CRM Global Portfolio Strategy Q3 2025 – The Price of Confidence
bit.ly/crm_markets

#GlobalMarkets #MacroStrategy #AssetAllocation #RiskManagement #ThePriceOfConfidence #CapitalRiskManagement #InvestmentDiscipline #ConfidenceAndCapital

📉 ADP Employment Report – Sep ‘25

The slowdown is real.

👥 Total Jobs: Momentum has faded — from +221k in Jan to -32k in Sep, with volatility along the way.

🏭 By Sector:
- 📚 Education the only bright spot (+33k)
- 🚧 Construction (-5k), 🏦 Finance (-9k), 🎭 Leisure (-19k) all weakened
- Most other sectors posted modest declines

🏢 By Firm Size:
- Big firms: Hiring held up (+33k)
- Small (-21k) and Micro (-19k) businesses drove the weakness
- Medium and Large also slipped

Takeaway: Job growth is stalling, with small business pain leading the way. Big companies are holding steady, but broad sector declines point to a labor market that’s losing balance.

#JobsReport #ADP #LaborMarket #Economy #Employment #Markets #Macro

📉 ADP Employment Report – Sep ‘25

The slowdown is real.

👥 Total Jobs: Momentum has faded — from +221k in Jan to -32k in Sep, with volatility along the way.

🏭 By Sector:
- 📚 Education the only bright spot (+33k)
- 🚧 Construction (-5k), 🏦 Finance (-9k), 🎭 Leisure (-19k) all weakened
- Most other sectors posted modest declines

🏢 By Firm Size:
- Big firms: Hiring held up (+33k)
- Small (-21k) and Micro (-19k) businesses drove the weakness
- Medium and Large also slipped

Takeaway: Job growth is stalling, with small business pain leading the way. Big companies are holding steady, but broad sector declines point to a labor market that’s losing balance.

#JobsReport #ADP #LaborMarket #Economy #Employment #Markets #Macro

📊 Q2 2025 GDP (Final Revision) – Fed Still Patient

🚀 Consumption: Revised higher, led by services → strong demand signal.
🌍 Net Exports: Reversal added to headline growth, though only minor revisions.
🏭 Investment: Fell as inventories declined, masking weak non-IP investment gains.

Takeaway: Stronger consumption keeps growth steady, but weak investment shows cracks. With GDP holding and inflation within projections, the Fed can stay neutral: no rush to cut rates until employment or inflation clearly shifts.

#GDP #Economy #FederalReserve #Markets #Macro #EconomicUpdate #Growth

📊 Q2 2025 GDP (Final Revision) – Fed Still Patient

🚀 Consumption: Revised higher, led by services → strong demand signal.
🌍 Net Exports: Reversal added to headline growth, though only minor revisions.
🏭 Investment: Fell as inventories declined, masking weak non-IP investment gains.

Takeaway: Stronger consumption keeps growth steady, but weak investment shows cracks. With GDP holding and inflation within projections, the Fed can stay neutral: no rush to cut rates until employment or inflation clearly shifts.

#GDP #Economy #FederalReserve #Markets #Macro #EconomicUpdate #Growth

🏭 Durable Goods (Aug ‘25) – Strength with Limits

📊 Core Orders: +7.6% Y/Y
📈 Still near 30-year highs, but flat for the past 3 years.

⚙️ Machinery leads the way — growth in primary equipment suggests future expansion.
📦 Inventories rising again after a drawdown, signaling supply is moderating.

Takeaway: Demand remains strong, but the industrial economy may be hitting a ceiling even as capital investment points forward.

More @ bit.ly/crm-economics

#DurableGoods #Manufacturing #Economy #Markets #Macro #EconomicUpdate

🏭 Durable Goods (Aug ‘25) – Strength with Limits

📊 Core Orders: +7.6% Y/Y
📈 Still near 30-year highs, but flat for the past 3 years.

⚙️ Machinery leads the way — growth in primary equipment suggests future expansion.
📦 Inventories rising again after a drawdown, signaling supply is moderating.

Takeaway: Demand remains strong, but the industrial economy may be hitting a ceiling even as capital investment points forward.

More @ bit.ly/crm-economics

#DurableGoods #Manufacturing #Economy #Markets #Macro #EconomicUpdate

🏗️ Building Permits (Aug ‘25) – Housing Slump Deepens

📉 -11.1% Y/Y
⚠️ Lowest level since 2007, well off the 2022 peak.

🏠 Single-family permits lead the decline and levels would need to double to align with prior population growth.
🌎 South & West regions drive the drop as pandemic-era migration reverses.

Takeaway: Housing supply is tightening just as demand pressures persist: a dynamic with lasting economic impact.

#HousingMarket #BuildingPermits #Economy #RealEstate #Macro #Markets #EconomicUpdate

🏗️ Building Permits (Aug ‘25) – Housing Slump Deepens

📉 -11.1% Y/Y
⚠️ Lowest level since 2007, well off the 2022 peak.

🏠 Single-family permits lead the decline and levels would need to double to align with prior population growth.
🌎 South & West regions drive the drop as pandemic-era migration reverses.

Takeaway: Housing supply is tightening just as demand pressures persist: a dynamic with lasting economic impact.

#HousingMarket #BuildingPermits #Economy #RealEstate #Macro #Markets #EconomicUpdate

🛍️ Retail Sales (Aug ‘25) – Growth Holds Strong

📊 +5.0% Y/Y

✅ Momentum continues as tariff uncertainty fades.
💻🚗 Online & Automotive lead — tariff-sensitive sectors pulling demand forward.
🌍 Import-sensitive sectors expand as higher prices boost sales values.

Takeaway: Consumer demand remains resilient, with growth broadening across sectors despite tariff noise.

#RetailSales #Economy #ConsumerSpending #Markets #Macro #Trading #EconomicUpdate

More @ bit.ly/crm-economics

🛍️ Retail Sales (Aug ‘25) – Growth Holds Strong

📊 +5.0% Y/Y

✅ Momentum continues as tariff uncertainty fades.
💻🚗 Online & Automotive lead — tariff-sensitive sectors pulling demand forward.
🌍 Import-sensitive sectors expand as higher prices boost sales values.

Takeaway: Consumer demand remains resilient, with growth broadening across sectors despite tariff noise.

#RetailSales #Economy #ConsumerSpending #Markets #Macro #Trading #EconomicUpdate

More @ bit.ly/crm-economics

📈 CPI (Aug ‘25) – Inflation Pressures Building

Consumer Price Index: +2.9% Y/Y

🏠 Housing: Still elevated — expected to take ~6 months to normalize.
💼 Services: Accelerating, sitting 33% above the 15-year average.
📊 Core CPI: Above its 30-year average and even higher than the prior 15-year peak.
🛒 All sub-components: Broad-based gains show inflation momentum is returning.

Takeaway: Inflation is no longer just sticky — it’s re-accelerating across housing, services, and core measures.

#CPI #Inflation #Economy #Markets #Macro #Trading #EconomicUpdate

More @ bit.ly/crm/economics

📈 CPI (Aug ‘25) – Inflation Pressures Building

Consumer Price Index: +2.9% Y/Y

🏠 Housing: Still elevated — expected to take ~6 months to normalize.
💼 Services: Accelerating, sitting 33% above the 15-year average.
📊 Core CPI: Above its 30-year average and even higher than the prior 15-year peak.
🛒 All sub-components: Broad-based gains show inflation momentum is returning.

Takeaway: Inflation is no longer just sticky — it’s re-accelerating across housing, services, and core measures.

#CPI #Inflation #Economy #Markets #Macro #Trading #EconomicUpdate

More @ bit.ly/crm/economics

📉 PPI Update (Aug ‘25) – Mixed Signals

Producer Price Index: +2.6% Y/Y

⬇️ Aggregate prices fell last month with a sharp downward revision to July.
📦 Goods: Inflation cooled, led by declines in government + exports.
💼 Services: Dropped materially, with trade leading lower — but every other sector still rose.
🚚 Trade prices: Declines led subcategories, while non-trade sectors kept inflation pressures alive.

Takeaway: Inflation eased at the producer level, but underlying pressures persist.

#PPI #Inflation #Markets #Economy #Macro #EconomicUpdate #Trading

📉 PPI Update (Aug ‘25) – Mixed Signals

Producer Price Index: +2.6% Y/Y

⬇️ Aggregate prices fell last month with a sharp downward revision to July.
📦 Goods: Inflation cooled, led by declines in government + exports.
💼 Services: Dropped materially, with trade leading lower — but every other sector still rose.
🚚 Trade prices: Declines led subcategories, while non-trade sectors kept inflation pressures alive.

Takeaway: Inflation eased at the producer level, but underlying pressures persist.

#PPI #Inflation #Markets #Economy #Macro #EconomicUpdate #Trading

💼 Jobs Report (Aug ‘25) – Slowing but Still Growing

📊 Non-Farm Payrolls: +22k
➡️ 4-month average: +27k

🏥 Healthcare is carrying the load — without it, job growth is flat across other sectors.
💵 Wage growth: Still above inflation ✅, but now below the 12-month average.

Takeaway: The labor market is cooling, with growth concentrated in healthcare and wage momentum softening. Signs of balance… or early cracks?

#JobsReport #NonFarmPayrolls #LaborMarket #Economy #Wages #Healthcare #Markets #Macro

💼 Jobs Report (Aug ‘25) – Slowing but Still Growing

📊 Non-Farm Payrolls: +22k
➡️ 4-month average: +27k

🏥 Healthcare is carrying the load — without it, job growth is flat across other sectors.
💵 Wage growth: Still above inflation ✅, but now below the 12-month average.

Takeaway: The labor market is cooling, with growth concentrated in healthcare and wage momentum softening. Signs of balance… or early cracks?

#JobsReport #NonFarmPayrolls #LaborMarket #Economy #Wages #Healthcare #Markets #Macro

📊 PPI (July 2024) – Inflation Signals Are Strengthening

The latest Producer Price Index came in at +3.3% Y/Y, marking a notable acceleration in price pressures.

Key takeaways:

- Goods inflation surged at 4x last month’s rate (plus an upward revision), as tariff concerns persist yet unchanged for 3 years.
- Services inflation rose materially and remains well above its 20-year mean.
- Trade prices advanced across all subcategories, indicating broad-based cost pressures.

Why it matters:
The combination of accelerating goods prices, sticky services inflation, and rising trade costs suggests that producer-level inflation is reasserting itself. This could challenge the “disinflation” narrative and complicate monetary policy decisions.

#PPI #Inflation #Economy #Markets #Macroeconomics #Trading #EconomicData #InterestRates

More @ bit.ly/crm-economics

📊 PPI (July 2024) – Inflation Signals Are Strengthening

The latest Producer Price Index came in at +3.3% Y/Y, marking a notable acceleration in price pressures.

Key takeaways:

- Goods inflation surged at 4x last month’s rate (plus an upward revision), as tariff concerns persist yet unchanged for 3 years.
- Services inflation rose materially and remains well above its 20-year mean.
- Trade prices advanced across all subcategories, indicating broad-based cost pressures.

Why it matters:
The combination of accelerating goods prices, sticky services inflation, and rising trade costs suggests that producer-level inflation is reasserting itself. This could challenge the “disinflation” narrative and complicate monetary policy decisions.

#PPI #Inflation #Economy #Markets #Macroeconomics #Trading #EconomicData #InterestRates

More @ bit.ly/crm-economics

📊 July 2025 CPI: +2.7% Y/Y
Inflation isn’t cooling: it’s heating back up.

🔥 Core prices still above their 30-year average
🏠 Housing: Elevated, ~6 months from normal levels
💼 Services: Up 33% vs 15-year average
📈 Price gains are broad across all categories

The takeaway? Inflation is accelerating, not fading.

#CPI #Inflation #Economy #Markets #Housing #Finance #MoneyTalks #MacroTrends #EconomicUpdate

More @ bit.ly/crm-economics

📊 July 2025 CPI: +2.7% Y/Y
Inflation isn’t cooling: it’s heating back up.

🔥 Core prices still above their 30-year average
🏠 Housing: Elevated, ~6 months from normal levels
💼 Services: Up 33% vs 15-year average
📈 Price gains are broad across all categories

The takeaway? Inflation is accelerating, not fading.

#CPI #Inflation #Economy #Markets #Housing #Finance #MoneyTalks #MacroTrends #EconomicUpdate

More @ bit.ly/crm-economics

📊 July 2025 CPI: +2.7% Y/Y
Inflation isn’t cooling: it’s heating back up.

🔥 Core prices still above their 30-year average
🏠 Housing: Elevated, ~6 months from normal levels
💼 Services: Up 33% vs 15-year average
📈 Price gains are broad across all categories

The takeaway? Inflation is accelerating, not fading.

#CPI #Inflation #Economy #Markets #Housing #Finance #MoneyTalks #MacroTrends #EconomicUpdate

More @ bit.ly/crm-economics

📊 July 2025 CPI: +2.7% Y/Y
Inflation isn’t cooling: it’s heating back up.

🔥 Core prices still above their 30-year average
🏠 Housing: Elevated, ~6 months from normal levels
💼 Services: Up 33% vs 15-year average
📈 Price gains are broad across all categories

The takeaway? Inflation is accelerating, not fading.

#CPI #Inflation #Economy #Markets #Housing #Finance #MoneyTalks #MacroTrends #EconomicUpdate

More @ bit.ly/crm-economics

Here’s a rewrite of your post optimized for **Instagram**—clear, concise, and formatted for mobile viewing:

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📉 Non-Farm Payrolls (July 2025): +73K

Job growth is slowing. Inflation is sticking. The signs of stagflation are hard to ignore.

⚠️ Big downward revisions to previous months
🏥 Healthcare is carrying the gains—other sectors flat
💸 Wages still beating inflation, but cooling vs. trend

🔗 More insights: bit.ly/crm-economics

#stocks #bonds #equities #employment #inflation #fed #tariffs #macroeconomics #markets #federareserve

Here’s a rewrite of your post optimized for **Instagram**—clear, concise, and formatted for mobile viewing:

---

📉 Non-Farm Payrolls (July 2025): +73K

Job growth is slowing. Inflation is sticking. The signs of stagflation are hard to ignore.

⚠️ Big downward revisions to previous months
🏥 Healthcare is carrying the gains—other sectors flat
💸 Wages still beating inflation, but cooling vs. trend

🔗 More insights: bit.ly/crm-economics

#stocks #bonds #equities #employment #inflation #fed #tariffs #macroeconomics #markets #federareserve

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
(Jun 2025) +2.1% y/y

Consumption has flat-lined since the beginning of the year, while prices are accelerating. Bearish for equities and bonds.

1) Expenditures continue to slow as persistent price increases limit spending.
2) Non-durable goods continue to lead spending as Durable Goods fall as inflation persists.
3) Price increases persist at 3.7% last last month, accelerating since the start of the year.

More @ bit.ly/crm-economics

#inflation #stocks #bonds #equities #fed #employment #tariffs

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
(Jun 2025) +2.1% y/y

Consumption has flat-lined since the beginning of the year, while prices are accelerating. Bearish for equities and bonds.

1) Expenditures continue to slow as persistent price increases limit spending.
2) Non-durable goods continue to lead spending as Durable Goods fall as inflation persists.
3) Price increases persist at 3.7% last last month, accelerating since the start of the year.

More @ bit.ly/crm-economics

#inflation #stocks #bonds #equities #fed #employment #tariffs

GDP +3.0% a.r. (Q2 2025)

The rebound of net imports drove headline growth up 3%, yet all sub-components are weakening. Ex-the import reversal effect, GDP declined 3.2%. Bearish for equities and bonds as growth stalls and inflation persists.

1) The reversal of net exports drives a jump in headline GDP.
2) Goods imports fell the highest rate as tariff avoidance fades.
3) Investment fell as inventories decline, hiding the meager growth of business investment.

More @ bit.ly/crm-economics

#gdp #inflation #stocks #bonds #equities $tariffs #Investment #employment #federalreserve

GDP +3.0% a.r. (Q2 2025)

The rebound of net imports drove headline growth up 3%, yet all sub-components are weakening. Ex-the import reversal effect, GDP declined 3.2%. Bearish for equities and bonds as growth stalls and inflation persists.

1) The reversal of net exports drives a jump in headline GDP.
2) Goods imports fell the highest rate as tariff avoidance fades.
3) Investment fell as inventories decline, hiding the meager growth of business investment.

More @ bit.ly/crm-economics

#gdp #inflation #stocks #bonds #equities $tariffs #Investment #employment #federalreserve

Housing Permits (June 25) +3k m/m (1,397units)

Fed policy is targeting the housing markets, so the slowdown is expected. The Fed act will cut when housing weakness feeds into lower CPI prices.

1) Permits increased yet remain near their 2018 peak
2) Single family units are plummeting
3) Multifamily units expanded modestly, yet remain at its 35-year average
4) The Midwest region rose as the others declined; suggesting that total building is weakening.

More @ bit.ly/crm-economics

#housing #homes #economy #rates #bonds #stocks #equities #fed #trade #tariff

Housing Permits (June 25) +3k m/m (1,397units)

Fed policy is targeting the housing markets, so the slowdown is expected. The Fed act will cut when housing weakness feeds into lower CPI prices.

1) Permits increased yet remain near their 2018 peak
2) Single family units are plummeting
3) Multifamily units expanded modestly, yet remain at its 35-year average
4) The Midwest region rose as the others declined; suggesting that total building is weakening.

More @ bit.ly/crm-economics

#housing #homes #economy #rates #bonds #stocks #equities #fed #trade #tariff

Producer Price Index (June 24) + 2.4% Y/Y

Headline prices show slowing inflation, yet tariffs might be seeping into trade and transportation. Bearish for bonds and equities.

1) Aggregate prices rose last month, and saw upward revision for the prior two months.
2) Goods inflation continued upwards as tariff concerns persisted, yet are unchanged for 3 years.
3) Services inflation slowed marginally, yet remains significantly above the 20 year mean.
4) Trade prices rose and Transportation fell, indicating the economy is slowing.

More @ bit.ly/crm-economics

#PPI #CPI #inflation #trade #tariffs #employment #economy #stocks #bonds #equities

Producer Price Index (June 24) + 2.4% Y/Y

Headline prices show slowing inflation, yet tariffs might be seeping into trade and transportation. Bearish for bonds and equities.

1) Aggregate prices rose last month, and saw upward revision for the prior two months.
2) Goods inflation continued upwards as tariff concerns persisted, yet are unchanged for 3 years.
3) Services inflation slowed marginally, yet remains significantly above the 20 year mean.
4) Trade prices rose and Transportation fell, indicating the economy is slowing.

More @ bit.ly/crm-economics

#PPI #CPI #inflation #trade #tariffs #employment #economy #stocks #bonds #equities

Consumer Price Index (Jun 25) +2.7%Y/Y

Bearish for bonds and equities.

1) Core prices remain at 30-year highs and 50% above their average for the period.
2) Housing prices remain elevated and will take 12 months to return to average.
3) Service prices are accelerating and remain 50% above their average.

Declining prices for gas, apparel, and communication, indicate a weakening economy. Yet, high inflation with good employment means the Fed will maintain the level of interest rates.

More @ bit.ly/crm-economics

#inflation #tariffs #stocks #bonds #equities #cpi #trade #fed #rates #employment

Consumer Price Index (Jun 25) +2.7%Y/Y

Bearish for bonds and equities.

1) Core prices remain at 30-year highs and 50% above their average for the period.
2) Housing prices remain elevated and will take 12 months to return to average.
3) Service prices are accelerating and remain 50% above their average.

Declining prices for gas, apparel, and communication, indicate a weakening economy. Yet, high inflation with good employment means the Fed will maintain the level of interest rates.

More @ bit.ly/crm-economics

#inflation #tariffs #stocks #bonds #equities #cpi #trade #fed #rates #employment

Consumer Price Index (Jun 25) +2.7%Y/Y

Bearish for bonds and equities.

1) Core prices remain at 30-year highs and 50% above their average for the period.
2) Housing prices remain elevated and will take 12 months to return to average.
3) Service prices are accelerating and remain 50% above their average.

Declining prices for gas, apparel, and communication, indicate a weakening economy. Yet, high inflation with good employment means the Fed will maintain the level of interest rates.

More @ bit.ly/crm-economics

#inflation #tariffs #stocks #bonds #equities #cpi #trade #fed #rates #employment

Consumer Price Index (Jun 25) +2.7%Y/Y

Bearish for bonds and equities.

1) Core prices remain at 30-year highs and 50% above their average for the period.
2) Housing prices remain elevated and will take 12 months to return to average.
3) Service prices are accelerating and remain 50% above their average.

Declining prices for gas, apparel, and communication, indicate a weakening economy. Yet, high inflation with good employment means the Fed will maintain the level of interest rates.

More @ bit.ly/crm-economics

#inflation #tariffs #stocks #bonds #equities #cpi #trade #fed #rates #employment

Non-Farm Payrolls (June 25) +147k

The Fed will stay the course as employment remains firm. Bullish for equities and bearish for bonds.

1) Payroll growth continues with positive revisions to the prior two months.
2) Healthcare leads the way while education falls, as spending expectations decline.
3) Wage growth remains above the inflation rate, positive, yet is below is 12-m average.

#fed #equities #bonds #stocks #trade #tariffs #employment #inflation

Non-Farm Payrolls (June 25) +147k

The Fed will stay the course as employment remains firm. Bullish for equities and bearish for bonds.

1) Payroll growth continues with positive revisions to the prior two months.
2) Healthcare leads the way while education falls, as spending expectations decline.
3) Wage growth remains above the inflation rate, positive, yet is below is 12-m average.

#fed #equities #bonds #stocks #trade #tariffs #employment #inflation

Producer Price Index (May 24) + 2.6% Y/Y

Aggregate prices slowed month, yet saw upward revision for the prior two months. Bearish for bonds and equities as inflation persists.

1) Goods inflation continued upwards as tariff concerns eased, yet are unchanged for 3 years.
2) Services inflation increased marginally, yet remains significantly above the 20 year mean.
3) Trade prices fell as trade volumes slowed.

More @ bit.ly/crm-economics

#inflation #prices #bonds #equities #stocks #tariffs

Producer Price Index (May 24) + 2.6% Y/Y

Aggregate prices slowed month, yet saw upward revision for the prior two months. Bearish for bonds and equities as inflation persists.

1) Goods inflation continued upwards as tariff concerns eased, yet are unchanged for 3 years.
2) Services inflation increased marginally, yet remains significantly above the 20 year mean.
3) Trade prices fell as trade volumes slowed.

More @ bit.ly/crm-economics

#inflation #prices #bonds #equities #stocks #tariffs

Consumer Price Index (May 25) +2.4%Y/Y

Trade continues to fade good and commodities, yet housing and service inflation prices continue their ascent. The Fed impacts only the latter two: bearish for bonds and equities.

1) Declining prices were from lower gas and air travel prices, showing a weakening economy.
2) Housing prices will take 24 months to return to average at its current rate of deceleration.
3) Service prices will take 6 months to return to average at its current rate of deceleration.

More @ bit.ly/crm-economcis

#CPI #Inflation #stocks #bonds #equities #economy #trade #tariffs

Consumer Price Index (May 25) +2.4%Y/Y

Trade continues to fade good and commodities, yet housing and service inflation prices continue their ascent. The Fed impacts only the latter two: bearish for bonds and equities.

1) Declining prices were from lower gas and air travel prices, showing a weakening economy.
2) Housing prices will take 24 months to return to average at its current rate of deceleration.
3) Service prices will take 6 months to return to average at its current rate of deceleration.

More @ bit.ly/crm-economcis

#CPI #Inflation #stocks #bonds #equities #economy #trade #tariffs

Consumer Price Index (May 25) +2.4%Y/Y

Trade continues to fade good and commodities, yet housing and service inflation prices continue their ascent. The Fed impacts only the latter two: bearish for bonds and equities.

1) Declining prices were from lower gas and air travel prices, showing a weakening economy.
2) Housing prices will take 24 months to return to average at its current rate of deceleration.
3) Service prices will take 6 months to return to average at its current rate of deceleration.
4) Education costs remain elevated; yet are only three percent of the total weight.

More @ bit.ly/crm-economcis

#CPI #Inflation #stocks #bonds #equities #economy #trade #tariffs

Consumer Price Index (May 25) +2.4%Y/Y

Trade continues to fade good and commodities, yet housing and service inflation prices continue their ascent. The Fed impacts only the latter two: bearish for bonds and equities.

1) Declining prices were from lower gas and air travel prices, showing a weakening economy.
2) Housing prices will take 24 months to return to average at its current rate of deceleration.
3) Service prices will take 6 months to return to average at its current rate of deceleration.
4) Education costs remain elevated; yet are only three percent of the total weight.

More @ bit.ly/crm-economcis

#CPI #Inflation #stocks #bonds #equities #economy #trade #tariffs

Non-Farm Payrolls (May 25) +139k

Bearish for equities and bullish for bonds as the a slowing economy would give the Fed room to move to lower rates.

1) Payroll growth continues yet it the prior two months were revised down 90,000.
2) Healthcare leads the way while Federal Government falls, as expected.
3) Wage growth accelerates to fastest rate in 6 months and is positive in real terms.

More @ bit.ly/crm-economics

#employment #stocks #bonds #equities #fed #economy

Non-Farm Payrolls (May 25) +139k

Bearish for equities and bullish for bonds as the a slowing economy would give the Fed room to move to lower rates.

1) Payroll growth continues yet it the prior two months were revised down 90,000.
2) Healthcare leads the way while Federal Government falls, as expected.
3) Wage growth accelerates to fastest rate in 6 months and is positive in real terms.

More @ bit.ly/crm-economics

#employment #stocks #bonds #equities #fed #economy

How to win the NBA Finals? We asked ChatGPT.

Using player tracking data from the NBA, ChatGPT was asked to design a defensive strategy for each team, then design an offensive strategy to counter it.

The surprisingly accurate strategies are found here: bit.ly/crm_NBA_finals_25

While data analytics are helpful, team culture and execution are the key ingredients to success.

Good luck to both teams in an epic NBA finals!

@nba @nbapa @espn @pacers @okcthunder @shai @tyresehaliburton

How to win the NBA Finals? We asked ChatGPT.

Using player tracking data from the NBA, ChatGPT was asked to design a defensive strategy for each team, then design an offensive strategy to counter it.

The surprisingly accurate strategies are found here: bit.ly/crm_NBA_finals_25

While data analytics are helpful, team culture and execution are the key ingredients to success.

Good luck to both teams in an epic NBA finals!

@nba @nbapa @espn @pacers @okcthunder @shai @tyresehaliburton

Existing Housing Sales -2.0% Y/Y (Apr)
Median Price $414K +0.1% M/M

Housing sales continue to slow and inventory to build. Both are bearish for equities and bonds.

Housing is a key indicator the Fed is watching for its next rate move.

1) Sales volume fell and is down 2% for the year.
2) Median sales prices rose, yet the South and West are showing y/y declines.
3) Inventory builds are high with high mortgage rates, a poor sign.

More @bit.ly/crm-economics

#Housing #mortgages #equities #stocks #bonds #inflation #fed #rates

Existing Housing Sales -2.0% Y/Y (Apr)
Median Price $414K +0.1% M/M

Housing sales continue to slow and inventory to build. Both are bearish for equities and bonds.

Housing is a key indicator the Fed is watching for its next rate move.

1) Sales volume fell and is down 2% for the year.
2) Median sales prices rose, yet the South and West are showing y/y declines.
3) Inventory builds are high with high mortgage rates, a poor sign.

More @bit.ly/crm-economics

#Housing #mortgages #equities #stocks #bonds #inflation #fed #rates

Producer Price Index (Apr 24) + 2.4% Y/Y

Price fell this month, which the Fed will watch for further deterioration. The trade wars is impacting US exporters materially. Bearish for equities and bullish for bonds.

1) Aggregate prices decreased this month, yet are up for the year.
2) Goods inflation slowed materially as tariff concerns eased, yet are unchanged for 3 years.
3) Services inflation slowed dramatically, yet remains significantly above the 20 year mean.
4) Trade prices fall as retaliatory tariffs emerge.

More @ bit.ly/crm-economics

#prices #trade #equities #stocks #bonds #rates #tariffs

Producer Price Index (Apr 24) + 2.4% Y/Y

Price fell this month, which the Fed will watch for further deterioration. The trade wars is impacting US exporters materially. Bearish for equities and bullish for bonds.

1) Aggregate prices decreased this month, yet are up for the year.
2) Goods inflation slowed materially as tariff concerns eased, yet are unchanged for 3 years.
3) Services inflation slowed dramatically, yet remains significantly above the 20 year mean.
4) Trade prices fall as retaliatory tariffs emerge.

More @ bit.ly/crm-economics

#prices #trade #equities #stocks #bonds #rates #tariffs

Advanced Retail Sales (Apr 25) + 5.2% Y/Y

The Fed will focus on slowing consumption and its impact on employment. Bearish for equities and bullish for bonds.

1) Retail sales are flat in real terms over the lat four months, as tariffs alter behavior.
2) Automotive is the leading sector as auto sales boom in advance of tariffs.
3) Gasoline declined on lower volume as average prices rose, a troublesome sign.

More @ bit.ly/crm-economics

Advanced Retail Sales (Apr 25) + 5.2% Y/Y

The Fed will focus on slowing consumption and its impact on employment. Bearish for equities and bullish for bonds.

1) Retail sales are flat in real terms over the lat four months, as tariffs alter behavior.
2) Automotive is the leading sector as auto sales boom in advance of tariffs.
3) Gasoline declined on lower volume as average prices rose, a troublesome sign.

More @ bit.ly/crm-economics

Consumer Price Index (April 25) +2.3%Y/Y

1) Declining prices were from lower gas and air travel prices, showing a weakening economy.
2) Housing prices will take 24 months to return to average at its current rate of deceleration.
3) Service prices will take 6 months to return to average at its current rate of deceleration.
4) Education costs remain elevated; yet are only three percent of the total weight.

Core inflation remains elevated, supporting the Fed's case to hold rates. Bearish for equities and bonds.

More @ bit.ly/crm-economics

#stocks #bonds #inflation #economy #fed #rates #cpi

Consumer Price Index (April 25) +2.3%Y/Y

1) Declining prices were from lower gas and air travel prices, showing a weakening economy.
2) Housing prices will take 24 months to return to average at its current rate of deceleration.
3) Service prices will take 6 months to return to average at its current rate of deceleration.
4) Education costs remain elevated; yet are only three percent of the total weight.

Core inflation remains elevated, supporting the Fed's case to hold rates. Bearish for equities and bonds.

More @ bit.ly/crm-economics

#stocks #bonds #inflation #economy #fed #rates #cpi

Consumer Price Index (April 25) +2.3%Y/Y

1) Declining prices were from lower gas and air travel prices, showing a weakening economy.
2) Housing prices will take 24 months to return to average at its current rate of deceleration.
3) Service prices will take 6 months to return to average at its current rate of deceleration.
4) Education costs remain elevated; yet are only three percent of the total weight.

Core inflation remains elevated, supporting the Fed's case to hold rates. Bearish for equities and bonds.

More @ bit.ly/crm-economics

#stocks #bonds #inflation #economy #fed #rates #cpi

Consumer Price Index (April 25) +2.3%Y/Y

1) Declining prices were from lower gas and air travel prices, showing a weakening economy.
2) Housing prices will take 24 months to return to average at its current rate of deceleration.
3) Service prices will take 6 months to return to average at its current rate of deceleration.
4) Education costs remain elevated; yet are only three percent of the total weight.

Core inflation remains elevated, supporting the Fed's case to hold rates. Bearish for equities and bonds.

More @ bit.ly/crm-economics

#stocks #bonds #inflation #economy #fed #rates #cpi

Non-Farm Payrolls (Apr 25) +177k
1) #Payroll growth continues yet it is below the 10-year average prior to the Pandemic.
2) #Health and #Trade lead while Federal #Government falls, as expected.
3) #age growth accelerates to fastest rate in 6 months and is positive in real terms

Last month was revised downward 50k , supporting this month's number. #Fed will stay the course as employment persists in the face of inflation pressures. Bearish for #bonds & #equities.

More @ bit.ly/crm-economics

Non-Farm Payrolls (Apr 25) +177k
1) #Payroll growth continues yet it is below the 10-year average prior to the Pandemic.
2) #Health and #Trade lead while Federal #Government falls, as expected.
3) #age growth accelerates to fastest rate in 6 months and is positive in real terms

Last month was revised downward 50k , supporting this month's number. #Fed will stay the course as employment persists in the face of inflation pressures. Bearish for #bonds & #equities.

More @ bit.ly/crm-economics

Global Markets are fading the US Tariff Turmoil

Global Market Monthly Returns for April 2025
1) Commodities plummet as economic uncertainty rises from the trade war.
2) International equity lead as investors flee US policy uncertainty.
3) US Value & Small stocks fall as domestic economic ambiguity grows.
4) Energy drops as the growth outlook declines from policy volatility.

Companies don't like uncertainty and they are voting with their money to leave US equities. Caveat emptor.

More @ bit.ly/crm-markets

Global Markets are fading the US Tariff Turmoil

Global Market Monthly Returns for April 2025
1) Commodities plummet as economic uncertainty rises from the trade war.
2) International equity lead as investors flee US policy uncertainty.
3) US Value & Small stocks fall as domestic economic ambiguity grows.
4) Energy drops as the growth outlook declines from policy volatility.

Companies don't like uncertainty and they are voting with their money to leave US equities. Caveat emptor.

More @ bit.ly/crm-markets

Real GDP (Q1 2025, First) -0.3% Q/Q A.R.

1) Imports increases and a Federal Government declined delivered a contraction of GDP.
2) Goods imports jump the highest rate in 50 years to avoid tariffs and steal future growth.
3) Durable goods cratered as consumers forestall big item purchases.

Domestic production is stable, a positive sign. Yet, future growth requires increased employment opportunities with historically low unemployment rates or higher wages that could fuel inflation. The former seems unlikely without immigration, while the latter could potentially lead to stagflation.

Bearish for stocks and bonds as growth falters and inflation rises.
More at bit.ly/crm-economics

Real GDP (Q1 2025, First) -0.3% Q/Q A.R.

1) Imports increases and a Federal Government declined delivered a contraction of GDP.
2) Goods imports jump the highest rate in 50 years to avoid tariffs and steal future growth.
3) Durable goods cratered as consumers forestall big item purchases.

Domestic production is stable, a positive sign. Yet, future growth requires increased employment opportunities with historically low unemployment rates or higher wages that could fuel inflation. The former seems unlikely without immigration, while the latter could potentially lead to stagflation.

Bearish for stocks and bonds as growth falters and inflation rises.
More at bit.ly/crm-economics

Consumer Price Index (March 25) +2.4%Y/Y
1) Declining prices were from lower #gas and #airtravel prices, showing a weakening economy.
2) #Housing prices will take 24 months to return to average at its current rate of deceleration.
3) Service prices will take 6 months to return to average at its current rate of deceleration.
4) #Education costs remain elevated; yet are only three percent of the total weight.
Core inflation in housing and services remains elevated. The #Fed will stay the course on #rates.

More @ bit.ly/crm-economics

Consumer Price Index (March 25) +2.4%Y/Y
1) Declining prices were from lower #gas and #airtravel prices, showing a weakening economy.
2) #Housing prices will take 24 months to return to average at its current rate of deceleration.
3) Service prices will take 6 months to return to average at its current rate of deceleration.
4) #Education costs remain elevated; yet are only three percent of the total weight.
Core inflation in housing and services remains elevated. The #Fed will stay the course on #rates.

More @ bit.ly/crm-economics

Consumer Price Index (March 25) +2.4%Y/Y
1) Declining prices were from lower #gas and #airtravel prices, showing a weakening economy.
2) #Housing prices will take 24 months to return to average at its current rate of deceleration.
3) Service prices will take 6 months to return to average at its current rate of deceleration.
4) #Education costs remain elevated; yet are only three percent of the total weight.
Core inflation in housing and services remains elevated. The #Fed will stay the course on #rates.

More @ bit.ly/crm-economics

Consumer Price Index (March 25) +2.4%Y/Y
1) Declining prices were from lower #gas and #airtravel prices, showing a weakening economy.
2) #Housing prices will take 24 months to return to average at its current rate of deceleration.
3) Service prices will take 6 months to return to average at its current rate of deceleration.
4) #Education costs remain elevated; yet are only three percent of the total weight.
Core inflation in housing and services remains elevated. The #Fed will stay the course on #rates.

More @ bit.ly/crm-economics

China holds the cards in a trade war.
- US #imports from #China are $440B, a $30B trade deficit
- China holds over $1 trillion of US #Treasuries
- China could sell its Treasuries to subsidize the tariffs for 2.5 years
- Structural US deficits require more #Treasury buyers, not less.
Higher interest rates and #inflation are in the cards.
More at bit.ly/crm-economics

China holds the cards in a trade war.
- US #imports from #China are $440B, a $30B trade deficit
- China holds over $1 trillion of US #Treasuries
- China could sell its Treasuries to subsidize the tariffs for 2.5 years
- Structural US deficits require more #Treasury buyers, not less.
Higher interest rates and #inflation are in the cards.
More at bit.ly/crm-economics

Non-Farm Payrolls (Mar 25) +228k
1) #Payroll growth continues yet it is below the 10-year average prior to the Pandemic.
2) #Health and #Trade lead while #Federal #Government falls, as expected.
3) #Wage growth is the slowest in a year, yet materially positive in real terms.
The #Fed will stay the course and maintain rates. Bearish for #equities and #bonds.
More at bit.ly/crm-economics

Non-Farm Payrolls (Mar 25) +228k
1) #Payroll growth continues yet it is below the 10-year average prior to the Pandemic.
2) #Health and #Trade lead while #Federal #Government falls, as expected.
3) #Wage growth is the slowest in a year, yet materially positive in real terms.
The #Fed will stay the course and maintain rates. Bearish for #equities and #bonds.
More at bit.ly/crm-economics

Real GDP (Q4 2024, Final) +2.4% Q/Q A.R.
Data does not change the posture of the #Fed, as PCE #inflation remains above target and growth stable.
1) Final revision increased #GDP growth by 0.1% as #imports were revised lower.
2) #Consumption and #Government remain the drivers of growth, with #investment falling
3) Durable goods continue to drive consumption as #auto and #recreation #vehicles lead

More @ bit.ly/crm-economics

Real GDP (Q4 2024, Final) +2.4% Q/Q A.R.
Data does not change the posture of the #Fed, as PCE #inflation remains above target and growth stable.
1) Final revision increased #GDP growth by 0.1% as #imports were revised lower.
2) #Consumption and #Government remain the drivers of growth, with #investment falling
3) Durable goods continue to drive consumption as #auto and #recreation #vehicles lead

More @ bit.ly/crm-economics

Core #Durable #Goods #NewOrders
(February 25) -0.3% Y/Y
1) Orders remain at 30-year highs, yet core orders are unchanged for 25 months
2) #Transport leads with Primary growing, suggesting future growth
3) #Inventories are building after a draw-down and hints that supply is moderating
Mildly bullish for #equities and bearish for #bonds as industrial production persists. No actionable information for the #Fed.
More @ bit.ly/crm-economics

Core #Durable #Goods #NewOrders
(February 25) -0.3% Y/Y
1) Orders remain at 30-year highs, yet core orders are unchanged for 25 months
2) #Transport leads with Primary growing, suggesting future growth
3) #Inventories are building after a draw-down and hints that supply is moderating
Mildly bullish for #equities and bearish for #bonds as industrial production persists. No actionable information for the #Fed.
More @ bit.ly/crm-economics

Consumer Price Index (February 24) +2.8%Y/Y

1) #Housing prices will take 24 months to return to average at its current deceleration rate.
2) #Service prices will take 6 months to return to average at its current slowdown rate.
3) #Education costs remain elevated; yet they are only three percent of the total weight.

The #Fed will maintain its current holding pattern for #rates. Bearish for #equities and #bonds.

More @ bit.ly/crm-economics

Consumer Price Index (February 24) +2.8%Y/Y

1) #Housing prices will take 24 months to return to average at its current deceleration rate.
2) #Service prices will take 6 months to return to average at its current slowdown rate.
3) #Education costs remain elevated; yet they are only three percent of the total weight.

The #Fed will maintain its current holding pattern for #rates. Bearish for #equities and #bonds.

More @ bit.ly/crm-economics

Consumer Price Index (February 24) +2.8%Y/Y

1) #Housing prices will take 24 months to return to average at its current rate of deceleration.
2) #Service prices will take 6 months to return to average at its current rate of deceleration.
3) #Education costs remain elevated; yet are only three percent of the total weight.

The #Fed will maintain its current holding pattern for #rates. Bearish for #equities and #bonds.

More @ bit.ly/crm-economics

Consumer Price Index (February 24) +2.8%Y/Y

1) #Housing prices will take 24 months to return to average at its current rate of deceleration.
2) #Service prices will take 6 months to return to average at its current rate of deceleration.
3) #Education costs remain elevated; yet are only three percent of the total weight.

The #Fed will maintain its current holding pattern for #rates. Bearish for #equities and #bonds.

More @ bit.ly/crm-economics

Non-Farm Payrolls (Feb 25) +151k
1) #Payroll growth continues yet it is below the 10-year average prior to the Pandemic.
2) #Health and #Trade lead while #Hospitality falls, a worrisome sign.
3) #Wage growth is slowing from generational highs, yet materially positive in real terms
Bullish for #equities and bearish for #bonds as the #Fed stays on hold.
More at bit.ly/crm-economics

Non-Farm Payrolls (Feb 25) +151k
1) #Payroll growth continues yet it is below the 10-year average prior to the Pandemic.
2) #Health and #Trade lead while #Hospitality falls, a worrisome sign.
3) #Wage growth is slowing from generational highs, yet materially positive in real terms
Bullish for #equities and bearish for #bonds as the #Fed stays on hold.
More at bit.ly/crm-economics

Existing Home Sales (Dec 24) +2.0% Y/Y
Median Price: $396,900 -1.7% M/M
1) Sales volume fell materially, yet are up two percent over the last year.
2) Median sale prices declined in every region and are down 7% since June.
3) Inventory rose modestly last month, yet is 18% higher than last year.
The housing market is slowing as inventory builds and prices decline. The #FED will look for #housing #inflation to moderate.
Bullish for #bonds and bearish for #equities as the #economy slows.
More at bit.ly/crm-economics

Existing Home Sales (Dec 24) +2.0% Y/Y
Median Price: $396,900 -1.7% M/M
1) Sales volume fell materially, yet are up two percent over the last year.
2) Median sale prices declined in every region and are down 7% since June.
3) Inventory rose modestly last month, yet is 18% higher than last year.
The housing market is slowing as inventory builds and prices decline. The #FED will look for #housing #inflation to moderate.
Bullish for #bonds and bearish for #equities as the #economy slows.
More at bit.ly/crm-economics

#Employment Notes:
#Payrolls +143K (Jan 25)
1) #Payroll growth continues yet it is below the 10-year average prior to the Pandemic.
2) #Health and #Trade lead while #Hospitality falls, a worrisome sign.
3) #Wage growth is slowing from generational highs, yet materially positive in real terms
Bullish for #bonds and bearish for #equities as growth slows. The #Fed will hold #rates.
More at bit.ly/crm-economics

#Employment Notes:
#Payrolls +143K (Jan 25)
1) #Payroll growth continues yet it is below the 10-year average prior to the Pandemic.
2) #Health and #Trade lead while #Hospitality falls, a worrisome sign.
3) #Wage growth is slowing from generational highs, yet materially positive in real terms
Bullish for #bonds and bearish for #equities as growth slows. The #Fed will hold #rates.
More at bit.ly/crm-economics

Notes on Retail Sales:
Advanced Retail Sales + 3.9% Y/Y (Dec 24)
1) #Retail #sales are growing in real terms, indicating expanding #consumption.
2) #Automotive is the leading sector as auto sales boom.
3) #Gasoline sales are back to 2021 levels after 30 months of declines.
#Consumer #spending is growing in real terms, which will give the #Fed pause on rate cuts.
Bullish for #equities and bearish for #bonds.
more at bit.ly/crm-economics

Notes on Retail Sales:
Advanced Retail Sales + 3.9% Y/Y (Dec 24)
1) #Retail #sales are growing in real terms, indicating expanding #consumption.
2) #Automotive is the leading sector as auto sales boom.
3) #Gasoline sales are back to 2021 levels after 30 months of declines.
#Consumer #spending is growing in real terms, which will give the #Fed pause on rate cuts.
Bullish for #equities and bearish for #bonds.
more at bit.ly/crm-economics

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